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Is Damascus going to fall before Valentine's day 2025?
|
YES
|
Daily coinflip
|
YES
|
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump on or before election day?
|
YES
|
Will the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces resign before his appointment expires in September 2024?
|
NO
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) beat the San Francisco 49ers (away)?
|
NO
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma?
|
NO
|
Will 23 and me be delisted on November 4th 2024
|
NO
|
If the Republican nominee wins Wisconsin, will they win the presidency (2024)?
|
YES
|
Will Barnier still be Prime Minister of France on October 15th 2024 ?
|
YES
|
NFL Week 6 (Oct 10): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers?
|
NO
|
Will Kamala Harris win at least one state won by Donald Trump in 2020?
|
NO
|
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025?
|
NO
|
2024 NCAAF 🏈 : Will Florida beat Florida State by 10+ points?
|
YES
|
Will Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas resign or step down before the election?
|
NO
|
On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing?
|
YES
|
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024
|
NO
|
Will the margin of victory in Wisconsin be smaller than the margin of victory in Pennsylvania?
|
YES
|
Will automated balls and strikes (aka "robo umps") feature in an MLB regular-season game in 2023 or 2024?
|
NO
|
Will Democrats win both houses of Congress?
|
NO
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 600k views?
|
YES
|
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?
|
NO
|
🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Will US Border Control detain more people trying to cross the US-Mexico border in 2024 than in 2023?
|
NO
|
Will this market get more than 25 traders ?
|
YES
|
MLB Postseason 2024 ⚾️ 10/8 NLDS Game 3 Phillies @ Mets: Will the Mets WIN this game?
|
YES
|
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other twice before the 2024 US presidential election?
|
NO
|
Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer?
|
NO
|
Will RFK Jr. be polling above 10% on October 1st, 2024?
|
NO
|
Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards?
|
NO
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2026?
|
YES
|
Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?
|
NO
|
Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten on Election Day?
|
YES
|
Will Trump get to 50% on Manifold by Halloween?
|
YES
|
Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee remain the nominee through Election Day?
|
YES
|
Will Moana 2 gross more than Moana at the global box office?
|
YES
|
Will Ivanka Trump release a tell-all book about Donald Trump before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
|
NO
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada?
|
NO
|
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?
|
YES
|
Will Tua Tagovailoa be eating Turducken after the Thanksgiving game?
|
NO
|
Will Togashi Yoshihiro publish a new chapter of Hunter × Hunter in 2024?
|
YES
|
Will an EAG(x) conference be held in India in 2024?
|
YES
|
Will the PYUSD stablecoin de-peg anytime before 2025?
|
NO
|
Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies
|
YES
|
Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024
|
NO
|
Picture of 2024 POTY & POTUS before EOY?
|
YES
|
Will a federal judge rule Trump ineligible to serve as president by Election Day?
|
NO
|
Will Manifold preserve my search filter state when hitting "back", by the election?
|
NO
|
Will Yuki Tsunoda score higher than Daniel Ricciardo in the 2024 Formula 1 Driver World Championship?
|
YES
|
Will CNN call the 2024 US presidential election by midnight Pacific time on Nov 5th 2024?
|
NO
|
On election day 2024, will George Santos be more relevant than Kevin McCarthy?
|
YES
|
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
|
NO
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Hawaii?
|
YES
|
Will the Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2024 than in 2023?
|
YES
|
Will The Super Model have over 1,000 subscribers by election day?
|
NO
|
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points than Daniel Ricciardo?
|
YES
|
Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg]
|
YES
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) increase by over 6% on any day in Oct 2024?
|
NO
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maryland?
|
YES
|
Will a Republican win Wisconsin for President by 2050?
|
YES
|
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
|
NO
|
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025?
|
NO
|
[Kalshi] Will Joe Manchin have left Senate Democratic leadership on November 6th 2024?
|
YES
|
Will Sonoma County, California, ban factory farming this November?
|
NO
|
Will Indiana vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
|
YES
|
[Subsidized] Will someone other than Biden or Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
NO
|
NFL Week 4 (Sep 29): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills?
|
YES
|
Will there be a formal military coup d'etat / takeover in Pakistan in 2024?
|
NO
|
Will there be a 5th Starship launch on or before October 15?
|
YES
|
Was Hassan Nasrallah killed today (9/27/24)?
|
YES
|
Will October 2024 be the hottest October on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data)
|
NO
|
The Factorio expansion will include something like this "quality" mechanic
|
YES
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
|
YES
|
⚾️ World Series Game 1 Yankees @ Dodgers: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?
|
NO
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on November 1, 2024?
|
YES
|
Will Delegate Ibarra speak from the stand at Valia Wain's trial
|
NO
|
Will Russia host the BRICS Summit in 2024?
|
YES
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024?
|
NO
|
Will I leave Manifold if I lose the 'Apple Vision Pro Prediction Market'?
|
NO
|
Daily coinflip
|
NO
|
Will Elon be revealed to be funding some of the larger anon/troll accounts on X during election season?
|
NO
|
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
NO
|
Will Saudi Arabia king Salman live in the end of 2024?
|
YES
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Ohio?
|
YES
|
Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6?
|
YES
|
Will California voters pass Proposition 36 — Drug and Theft Crime Penalties and Treatment-Mandated Felonies Initiative?
|
YES
|
Will the amount of hate crimes in the U.S. go up in 2023?
|
YES
|
Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data?
|
NO
|
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump?
|
NO
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)?
|
YES
|
Does Manifold think the sweepstakes are a good idea?
|
YES
|
Will DeepSeek release a DeepSeek V3 model by the end of Q1 2025
|
YES
|
Will ChatGPT get the "Monty from Hell" problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024?
|
YES
|
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
|
NO
|
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2024?
|
NO
|
Will I be demoted to Platinum this month?
|
NO
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
|
YES
|
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote?
|
NO
|
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
|
NO
|
Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation?
|
NO
|
Will JD Vance be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
|
NO
|
Will Bitcoin hit an all time high before US election winner is called?
|
YES
|
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